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	<title>Financial Crisis Aftermath &#187; SurvivalBlog</title>
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	<description>Adapting to the New Normal</description>
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		<title>Is the Financial Crisis Really Behind Us?</title>
		<link>http://financialcrisisaftermath.com/the-instability-scenario/is-the-financial-crisis-really-behind-us/</link>
		<comments>http://financialcrisisaftermath.com/the-instability-scenario/is-the-financial-crisis-really-behind-us/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 24 Oct 2009 11:49:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Myke</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[The Instability Scenario]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[James Wesley Rawles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Panzner]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SurvivalBlog]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://financialcrisisaftermath.com/?p=152</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Media, government officials, and some economists say the Recession is over; other observers say that the causes of the Financial Crisis continue to undermine economic health. Michael Panzner, one of my favorite guides through the financial crisis turmoil, pointed to the list below on James Wesley Rawles&#8217; blog. If you find reading this list depressing, [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p><p><span style="color: #0000ff;"><strong>Media, government officials, and some economists say the Recession is over; other observers say that the causes of the Financial Crisis continue to undermine economic health.</strong></span></p>
<p><span style="color: #0000ff;"><strong>Michael Panzner, one of my favorite guides through the financial crisis turmoil, pointed to the list below on James Wesley Rawles&#8217; blog. If you find reading this list depressing, remember that awareness is essential to preparation. Being prepared always beats being blindsided.</strong></span></p>
<p>Link: <a href="http://www.survivalblog.com/2009/10/twentytwo_reasons_why_this_rec.html">Twenty-Two Reasons Why this Recession is Different and Why  it Will Endure &#8211; SurvivalBlog -  James Wesley Rawles</a></p>
<ol>
<li>A broken global credit market that has not fully recovered. See: <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE58A2OZ20090911" target="_blank">After Lehman, U.S. firms adjust to new face of credit</a></li>
<li>Lack of transparency in Mortgage-Backed Securities and other re-packaged  debt instruments. See: <a href="http://www.housingwire.com/2009/07/10/geithner-blames-lack-of-transparency-for-otc-derivatives-hit-on-market/" target="_blank">Geithner Blames Lack of Transparency for OTC Derivatives Hit on  Market</a>.</li>
<li>The increasing Federal debt, which is growing at an unprecedented rate. See:  <a href="http://www.usdebtclock.org/" target="_blank">The National Debt Clock</a>.</li>
<li>Mountains of consumer and corporate debt. See: <a href="http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/observations-on-us-debt.html" target="_blank">Observations on the US Debt</a>.</li>
<li>The Federal budget deficit. See: <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Federal-deficit-hits-alltime-apf-1559993790.html?x=0" target="_blank">Federal Deficit Hits All-Time High of $1.42 Trillion.</a><span id="more-152"></span></li>
<li>Ever-expanding bailouts. (I call this <a href="http://www.survivalblog.com/glossary.html#MOAB" target="_blank">The  MOAB</a>.) See: <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/27662540" target="_blank">As More  Companies Seek Aid, &#8216;Where Do You Stop?&#8217;</a></li>
<li>Monetization of the National Debt. See: <a href="http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/US_Dollar_Initially_Drops_on_1255544729480.html" target="_blank">Fed Could Expand MBS Purchases</a>. (Can you spell <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ouroboros" target="_blank">Oroborus</a>?):</li>
<li>The destruction of the American consumer economy. (It had been artificially  credit-driven). See: <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/09/08/a-year-after-the-crisis-t_n_279973.html" target="_blank">A Year After The Crisis, The Consumer Economy Is Dead.</a></li>
<li>Chronic unemployment, possibly much higher than officially reported. See: <a href="http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data" target="_blank">Alternate Data at  ShadowStats</a>.</li>
<li>More than $500 Billion USD in hedge funds that have borrowed short and lent  long. See: <a href="http://www.thehedgefundjournal.com/news/2009/07/22/assets-invested-in-hedge-funds-increase-by-100bn.php" target="_blank">Assets invested in hedge funds increase by $100bn</a></li>
<li>A double wave of residential mortgage rate resets. See: <a href="http://bp3.blogger.com/_pMscxxELHEg/RxzD0s_7EYI/AAAAAAAABB4/ljDSXZhMG3o/s1600-h/IMFresets.jpg" target="_blank">this chart of scheduled mortgage interest rate resets</a>.</li>
<li>Continued down-ratcheting of house prices. See: <a href="http://www.newgeography.com/content/00567-housing-prices-will-continue-fall-especially-california" target="_blank">Housing Prices Will Continue to Fall, Especially in California</a></li>
<li>The under-reported &#8220;shadow inventory&#8221; of foreclosed houses. See: <a href="http://business.theatlantic.com/2009/09/the_shadow_foreclosure_inventory.php" target="_blank">The &#8220;Shadow&#8221; Foreclosure Inventory</a></li>
<li>The very likely collapse of commercial real estate (&#8220;the other shoe to  drop&#8221;.) See: <a href="http://money.cnn.com/2009/05/28/news/commercial.mortgages.fortune/index.htm" target="_blank">Is a commercial real estate bust inevitable?</a></li>
<li>A huge crisis lurking in over-the-counter derivatives. See <a href="http://www.survivalblog.com/derivatives.html" target="_blank">my analysis  published in 2006</a> and the dozens of articles on the <a href="http://derivativedribble.wordpress.com/" target="_blank">Derivative Dribble  Blog</a>.</li>
<li>Under-funded pensions. See: <a href="http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/Almost-half-of-top-unions-have-underfunded-pension-plans--47162127.html" target="_blank">Almost half of top unions have under funded pension plans</a>.</li>
<li>A coming wave of municipal bond and municipal bond hedge fund failures. See:  <a href="http://www.subprimelosses.com/blog/index.php/2009/02/26/the-failure-of-leveraged-municipal-bond-hedge-funds/" target="_blank">The Failure of Leveraged Municipal Bond Hedge Funds</a>.</li>
<li>Increasing numbers of bank failures. See: <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/09/29/fdic-bank-failures-to-cos_n_302754.html" target="_blank">FDIC: Bank Failures to Cost Around $100 Billion</a>.</li>
<li>Insurance company collapses&#8211;some, like AIG, were foolish enough to insure  more than a trillion dollars in derivative contracts. See: <a href="http://boingboing.net/2009/03/09/aig-has-insured-16-t.html" target="_blank">AIG: Is the Risk Systemic?</a></li>
<li>Worsening state, county, and city budget crises. See: <a href="http://detnews.com/article/20090930/POLITICS02/909300380/Granholm-sends-layoff-notices-ahead-of-shutdown" target="_blank">State prepares for shutdown as budget deadline looms</a>, and this  article from a liberal site: <a href="http://www.thepeoplesvoice.org/TPV3/Voices.php/2009/09/04/predicting-worse-ahead-from-america-s-ec" target="_blank">Predicting Worse Ahead from America&#8217;s Economic Crisis</a>.</li>
<li>Loss of faith in the US Dollar, on the <a href="http://www.survivalblog.com/glossary.html#FOREX" target="_blank">FOREX</a>.  See: <a href="http://www.newser.com/article/d9b2op1o3/dollars-reserve-currency-status-in-focus-as-g-7-finance-ministers-meet.html" target="_blank">Dollar&#8217;s reserve currency status in focus as G-7 finance ministers  meet</a>.</li>
<li>The coming mass currency inflation, following some asset deflation. See: <a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/10/07/which-is-more-likely-in-2010-deflation-or-inflation/" target="_blank">Which is more likely in 2010: Deflation or inflation?</a><a href="http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/10/07/which-is-more-likely-in-2010-deflation-or-inflation/" target="_blank"><br />
</a></li>
</ol>
<p><a href="http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2009/10/the-sum-total-of-all-that-is-wrong.html">Michael Panzner</a> says this list has a few overlapping elements and some that are missing (e.g., <a href="http://www.economicroadmap.com/2009/10/not-in-good-shape.html">the  terrible state of our nation&#8217;s infrastructure</a>), but publisher Jim Rawles does a  decent job of getting the point across.</p>
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